"Dare to be special, the investments must be made here and now"

The state must be more involved in the industrial transition in Norrbotten. This was the consensus of the participating members of parliament, local politicians and representatives of the business community when the report was published. Norrbotten: Industrial transition and its socio-economic effects was launched. Here are some voices from the conversation at Norra Scen in Vetenskapens Hus on May 3.

The report was presented by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, which provided the report's background and analyses. It showed, among other things, that the industrial transition in Norrbotten could be a huge gain for Sweden as early as 2030 - but that there are critical bottlenecks that could mean this great opportunity is lost. 

- It's a question of competitiveness. In a few years you won't be able to make crappy products with a big climate footprint. This is happening now and it's happening on business grounds. So what are we at risk of missing out on? We could be missing out on great value, that tax money has been invested without getting a return. That the whole green transition is losing momentum. Countries all over the world are investing heavily, if it doesn't happen here it will happen somewhere else, said Niklas Berglind, McKinsey & Company, when he presented the report.

“Up to proof”

The presentation was followed by a panel discussion with politicians. Amanda Lind, newly elected spokesperson for the Green Party, sees a major challenge in convincing the Riksdag and government to open their wallets.

– The state cannot and should not leave the municipalities and regions in the lurch. This will generate a lot of money for the treasury and we have a very low national debt. If there is ever a time when we are going to invest, it is now. Housing and infrastructure must be put in place. The big challenge is to ensure that there is insight throughout the Riksdag. This will be proven this autumn when an important budget is to be passed, then comes the infrastructure bill where we must ensure that the railway and road network in Norrbotten can handle the industrial investments. Dare to treat them differently, the investments must be made here and now, said Amanda Lindh.

Mattias Karlsson, Moderate Party group leader in the Riksdag, are most concerned about the train infrastructure and indigenous rights.

– It's happening now, we're in the middle of it and backing down from it won't happen. What keeps me awake at night is the Malmbanan railway and the double track Luleå-Boden. We will be able to handle many other challenges, but the double track is so important for the investments that are being made. This is what I'm most worried about, and ultimately it's politics that must approve it, said Mattias Karlsson and continues:

– The criticism of the industrial investments in Norrbotten is easy to dismiss, HYBRIT alone will reduce Sweden's total emissions by ten percent. It is a cheap investment to reduce emissions by that much. What cannot be dismissed is that the transition conflicts with some of our national interests, such as the Armed Forces and the reindeer industry. We are receiving criticism from Amnesty and the UN for how the Sami villages are affected. That is something we have to take with us, that criticism is harder to ignore.

“Threat to industrial society”

Fredrik Lundh Sammeli (S) represents Norrbotten in the Riksdag but emphasizes that what is happening is a national matter.

– It is a threat to the industrial society and the nation of Sweden if we are not able to be part of this movement forward, it would be devastating. It is an opportunity that we need to seize here and now. It is not a Norrbotten matter. The truth is that the transition must take place throughout the country if we are to keep up and then the state needs to take a great responsibility. This situation challenges many perspectives, we are used to queuing, we have long-term plans, we are good at handling closures. But we cannot include the Malmbanan in a plan for 2037 when it needs to be done now.

Claes Nordmark, municipal councilor in Boden and chairman of Norrbotten's municipalities, thinks that the state is passing an unreasonable amount of risk onto the municipalities.

– Boden is investing now, we are building a larger community, building a railway, building water for the industrial area. We have budgeted a deficit of 500 million kronor, that is a lot of money. We have three years to restore the deficit, it is healthy but difficult. We need to expand Boden with tax revenues that we do not yet have. Now we have jumped below the surface and hope to come up in a year or so. It is tough and these are not local issues, these are not municipal issues, these are national issues. And this is not fair considering that the state profits the most from everything that happens.

He also emphasized the risk that Sweden will be overtaken while the state is passive.

– We have an open window now, enormous funds are being invested. If we don't take the chance, the window will close. Germany, France, Canada are investing. While we are discussing whether it is right to invest, then the train leaves and we have lost. But we still have the chance. We can have an exciting, modern industry, that we make money from it and have sustainable societies, said Claes Nordmark.

After the politicians, moderator Lenita Eriksson welcomed a panel from the business community and Svenska kraftnät onto the Norra Scen. Niklas Johansson, Communications Director at LKAB, was both frustrated and concerned about the bottlenecks where industrial transformation is about to stall.

– Things are not going well right now, not with the Ore Railway, not with the electricity grid, not with the permit processes. The report showed very clearly the challenges we face. We get frustrated, because we see the opportunities, and what is the alternative? Some critics believe that we should stay where we are and not develop. But the only way forward looks like this, and the other is to start planning for closure.

Viktoria Karsberg, SSAB, highlighted that the business community to the south also benefits from the investments in Norrbotten.

– What is happening here creates competitiveness for all of Sweden. We have established 55 partnerships for fossil-free steel, including in Skåne and Gothenburg, with Volvo for example. Our customers must reduce their emissions, and then they need to check the materials in their products. But that requires us to expand energy production and transmission to the industries, said Karsberg.

“The future is electric”

Anne Graf, H2 Green Steel, have difficulty understanding how Sweden could have ended up in a position where we could suffer from a lack of effectiveness.

– Market forces are not illogical. It has been known for twenty years that the future is electric. Renewable electricity is part of those challenges. The strange thing is that we are in this situation. Why didn't we start earlier? We knew it was coming, she said.

Katarina Larsson, Swedish Power Network, highlighted that the polarization around different types of energy is part of the problem.

Polarization creates paralysis in decision-making processes. Permit processes take much longer, the entire development of society is delayed. It is a very big risk. It is important that we see this as a societal transformation for all of Sweden. It should happen through democratic means and everyone should have a say, but these major blockages paralyze us in action and we cannot afford that, she said.

Anne Graf returned with an argument about the importance of creating clusters and how it can create benefits for both fossil-free steel investments in Norrbotten.

– We are the Silicon Valley of the green transition. If we are going to attract the best people in the whole world, they will move because there are several world-leading companies to work for. We will have 1500 new jobs in operation, it is a big strain on the municipality we are establishing ourselves in. We know that Boden has a hard time handling it, but Boden is doing a tremendous job, they are so good at what they do and we are very grateful for that.

Anders Öberg (S), Chairman of the Regional Board in the Norrbotten Region, rounded off the panel discussion by looking ahead.

– It is important to show all the possibilities, but the report's intention is also to point out a number of things that need to be done to make it successful. Now we need to tell the story. We know, but we need to tell those who don't live here in Norrbotten. Get them to approach this issue and increase their knowledge and understanding. The conversation will continue in Almedalen this summer, concluded Öberg.

Text: Sara Stylbäck Vesa

Full report (pdf)
The report in summary (pdf)

FACT: Socioeconomic benefit

The pot holds large annual profits from 2030:

• An increase in Sweden's GDP by 2-3 percent. This corresponds to 80-160 billion kronor per year.
• SEK 15-35 billion in annual tax revenue.
• 20 new jobs.
• SEK 100 billion in increased export value.
• Significantly reduced carbon dioxide emissions.

However, realizing this potential requires government commitment.

• Until 2030 Investments in the order of SEK 200-260 billion are needed.
• Of this, only 60-80 billion SEK public investments.
• Investments are needed in electricity production, electricity grid, transport infrastructure, housing and Society.