New report shows the societal benefits of industrial transformation

An increase in Sweden's GDP by 2-3 percent – ​​equivalent to an annual defense budget. SEK 15–35 billion in increased tax revenue. 20 new jobs. That's part of the potential that lies in the pot when industry in Norrbotten changes. The new report Norrbotten: Industrial transition and its socio-economic effects provides a comprehensive picture of what profit is within reach – and what is required.

The report released today shows in clear figures and examples the societal benefit of the industrial transition in Norrbotten - for Sweden's economy, climate and demographics. The industrial transition will increase Sweden's GDP by 2-3 percent, equivalent to 80-160 billion kronor per year, already in 2030. For comparison, 2 percent of GDP is what Sweden, as a NATO country, is supposed to spend on its defense every year.

The report also includes calculations on export value, tax revenue, climate benefits, jobs and demographics. For example, it involves 20 new jobs and an annual increase in tax revenue of SEK 000-15 billion.

Facsimile of the report.

But investments are also needed to realize this potential. The report includes calculations of the size of the investments required up to 2030. These include investments in electricity generation, electricity grids, transport infrastructure and community development.

Risk and benefit

There are also clear figures on the imbalance in the distribution of risk and benefit between municipalities and the state. The municipalities are now estimated to be responsible for 30-50 percent of the investment costs, while the state receives 80 percent of the values ​​created. This imbalance is harmful, both for the industrial transition but also for the people who live in Norrbotten.

– The report points out that the municipalities take most of the risk and Sverige AB gets most of the benefit. This is neither reasonable nor fair. For the sake of local communities, for the sake of the population of Norrbotten, this imbalance must be corrected, says Anders Öberg, Chairman of the Regional Board of Region Norrbotten.

One conclusion of the report is that it is now urgent to make decisions and get public investments in the order of SEK 60-80 billion in place. But the transition also requires faster permit processes, guidance on land use and incentives to move to work.

“Secure Swedish industry”

There are major challenges to be faced in five to six years. But the report concludes with an analysis of the tangible consequences of letting this opportunity slip through Sweden's hands: lost revenue, lost competitiveness and climate goals that become almost impossible to achieve.

– If you want to be part of securing Swedish industry for the next hundred years, it is high time to invest in what is required to enable these initiatives, says Janus Brandin, Regional Development Director, Norrbotten Region.

The report is based on a study of the impact of eight major industrial projects in Norrbotten, up to 2030. It is based on several open sources and reports, as well as analyses by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Region Norrbotten is responsible for the report's conclusions.

Full report as pdf
Summary of the report
See the presentation on Norra Scen (youtube)

Text: Sara Stylbäck Vesa