“Returnees and stayers are the great potential”

Northern Sweden will have to struggle to solve the labor shortage. The starting position is difficult. That was the grim message from Rikard Eriksson, professor of economic geography at Umeå University, when the Competence Council gathered at Boden Business Park. 

– Northern Sweden has an aging population and a growing dependency ratio, so it is already a pressured situation as it is. Who will work in healthcare, who will work in schools? Now we are getting extreme demand shocks, thousands of vacant jobs that need to be filled. That is the difficult situation for northern Sweden today, said Rikard Eriksson.

The researcher attended the first meeting of the year for the Competence Council, which brings together stakeholders from all over Norrbotten in education and the labor market.

The migration to work in the south for several decades in the 1900th century is an explanation for today's labor shortage. But changes in the public sector have also driven the development. State policy centralized many jobs: the Public Employment Service, the Social Insurance Agency, the Police. This has affected the supply of social services and the conditions for business in Northern Sweden.

– The centralization of the public sector also sends signals to the private sector. If there is no local employment agency that can support recruitment, then it may not be so attractive to keep the business in the locality, says Rikard Eriksson.

May lose spillover effects

Now the green transition has given hope for a future with growing, thriving communities in the north. But Rikard Eriksson warns time and again of the risk that the green transition stops at industrialization, which can be driven by fly-in, fly-out personnel.

– If there are no people who can take jobs, it will just be industrialization, not a societal transformation. Then we lose the spillover effects.

– It is societal transformation and not reindustrialization that we want. And that also requires investments in housing, schools, healthcare and everything that is needed in a society. Thanks to the strong basic industry, Northern Sweden has a unique skills structure that has made the region attractive for investments. Parts of the workforce that is currently in industrial occupations will be able to adapt to the needs of the new green industry.

Historical patterns to learn from

But in order not to risk increasing competition for labor and the exodus of personnel from other industries, immigrant labor is required. There are historical patterns to learn from when looking ahead. For a long time, few people have moved to a new region they have no connection to. Those who do are young and often move for studies.

– It is mainly the group between 19-34 years old who move for studies, work or when the family grows, says Rikard Eriksson.

Families with children who move may have parents who work in healthcare or education. They can find jobs anywhere, but may have difficulty affording a villa in metropolitan regions. But fundamentally, the professor's conclusion is that the greatest potential for population growth is among students and returnees.

Only one in three students stays

Nationally, it is common for those who move for studies to stay. But from LTU, only one in three stays in the labor market area. In other words, we educate students and send them out in Sweden and the world.

– As a university, we should ask ourselves: do we need to get bigger and get more students or do we need to get better and get more people to stay?

The other large group with potential, according to Rikard Eriksson, is the returnees, those with a social network in the north. But if you want to attract them, you have to focus on qualitative goals for social development. Choosing a place to live is rarely "location shopping", the professor therefore advocates primarily long-term investments in the most basic:

– Invest in community services. Since “stayers” and returnees are the great potential, we should invest in affordable housing, high-quality care, education and social services.

– If residents leave the municipality with a feeling of “what a good school I had, what a nice upbringing”, they are more likely to see it as a place to return to, says Rikard Eriksson.

FACTS: Competence Council

Within the framework of the North Sweden Green Deal, the reference group, the Skills Council, is taking a closer look at how the skills supply issue can be untangled.

Standing from left: Dusanka Catak, Norrbotten Municipalities, Evelina Åström, Construction Companies, Helena Hansson, Boden Municipality, Håkan Johansson, Piteå Municipality, Börje Lindqvist, Luleå Municipality, Vera Westerlund, Femkantens Adult Education, Martin Bergvall, Academy North, Lars Lindberg, Companies, Anna-Maria Lundkvist Monroy, County Administrative Board, Nicklas Häggström, Luleå Municipality, Stina Johansson, LTU, Roger Jönsson, Norrbotten Region, Leif Pääjärvi, Education North, Helena Ström, Norrbotten Region.

Seated from left: Linda Rönnbäck, Technical College, Rikard Eriksson, Umeå University, Stina Almkvist, Norrbotten Region.

The skills council brings together representatives from all over Norrbotten who work with education and the labor market in various ways. The main participants are adult education organizers, the employment service, trade organizations and employers in the public sector. They meet a few times each year to jointly identify problem areas and seek solutions.

The North Sweden Green Deal is an initiative to realize a sustainable societal transition, in the wake of the new industrial establishments.

The project is run by Region Norrbotten and Region Västerbotten together with a number of other actors. It is financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

Text: Matilda Wikberg and Sara Stylbäck Vesa