Four alternative futures – where is Norrbotten heading?
How has Norrbotten developed in 2040? What opportunities and challenges does our society then have? There is no crystal ball, and the future holds a long list of choices and as yet unknown events that could affect where we end up. Now researchers at Luleå University of Technology have developed four different scenarios for Norrbotten in 2040. How can they help us talk about the future?
The industrial transition is already underway, but we do not know how it will succeed and how it will affect society. The report Norrbotten 2040 presents four alternative scenarios. They are intended to be used as a basis for discussion about different possible futures for Norrbotten. They are also intended to provide increased readiness for action in the region's development work.
The scenarios have been crafted based on two factors that will greatly influence how things go for Norrbotten.
Firstly: How big an impact will the green transition ultimately have when it comes to investments in industry, infrastructure and testing activities?
Second: How attractive will the county be to potential immigrants? Will we get any increase in highly educated workers and their families?
How these two areas – investment and immigration – perform will determine where we end up. And they, in turn, are influenced by external factors that we cannot control.
Four scenarios
Based on different combinations of these two dimensions, possible scenarios have resulted in four alternative futures. They are:
- The hub of the green industrial transformation
- The productive oil platform economy
- Post-industrial society is moving north
- The peripheral industrial region in a new guise.
– All alternative futures have their opportunities and challenges that characterize society and the county's economy. Together, they can provide a picture of what may be required of future regional development work, says Anders Öberg, regional councilor (S), Norrbotten Region.
Anders Öberg is looking forward to the new RUS process.
The intention is to describe how internal and external events and trends can generate alternative futures for Norrbotten. They are not attempts to predict the future development of the region.
Tools in the RUS process
In 2024, work will continue on developing a revised regional development strategy. Now the course will be adjusted for the strategy developed in 2019. This process is a major co-creation. The ambition is for broad layers of Norrbotten residents to participate in the conversation about how we want the county to develop and how we will get there.
In that process, the four alternative futures become an important tool.
– We believe that discussions will be better if they are based on knowledge and awareness of different paths that development can take, what we can influence and what we have no control over. We look forward to hearing from the people of Norrbotten about our shared future, says Anders Öberg.
The future scenarios have been developed within the collaborative project Regional Renewal between Region Norrbotten, Luleå University of Technology and the County Administrative Board of Norrbotten.
Text: Sara Stylbäck Vesa